中国居民收入与消费关系的时空差异：基于函数数据的动态分析

作者：王德庆、徐燕、何凌云、刘荣艳

国籍：中国

出处：MDPI期刊可持续发展2018,10(12),4703

摘要：城乡居民收入不平等和消费差距是中国经济转型阶段的突出问题。拉动消费、扩大内需、转变发展方式是中国经济保持健康、稳定、内生增长的必然选择，关键前提是理清居民收入与消费的协调关系。鉴于此，本研究将三个经济区的空间因素和中国经济转型的时间因素纳入分析框架。通过将离散数据转化为连续函数，我们从静态绝对水平和动态增长速度两个角度比较了居民收入与消费关系的区域差异和时间特征。结果表明：（1）中国东、中、西部地区居民原始收入和消费的绝对水平存在显着差异，而收入和消费的增长速度和增速没有明显的区域差异。（2）居民收入和消费的绝对增长量和动态增长潜力均存在高度正典型相关，而其非线性共变具有明显的时间特征，典型相关程度具有显着的地区差异。基于这些结论，中国政府在制定实施缩小居民收入差距和刺激消费以扩大内需的政策时，不必过多考虑区域因素，而要区分收入和消费的具体共同演变时期，考虑不同社会阶层平均消费率的差异。

关键词：收入不平等；消费缺口；功能数据分析；时空差异

一、简介

消费与收入的平衡是政府制订宏观经济政策的核心。由于凯恩斯[1]提出了绝对收入假说，短期的波动和收入与消费之间存在长期均衡关系在经济学已经成为了永久的热点问题[2,3]。中国目前正处于经济转型的关键时期，特别是受当前中美贸易战的影响，传统的粗放型发展模式严重依赖投资和出口，无法保证中国经济持续稳定快速增长。因此，扩大内需，特别是拉动消费需求，是政府应对危机、稳定经济的重要举措。必须指出的是，人口的大小和收入的增长潜力意味着中国的消费水平有较大的空间向上改善[4,5]。但实际情况表明，我国仍面临消费总量下降、区域与城乡居民消费差距过大、政府消费支出占居民消费支出比重增加等多重困境 [5,6,7,8]。“十三五”是我国全面建成小康社会的关键时期，拉动内需特别是居民消费需求，是实现我国经济内生增长的必然选择。关键前提是找出和消除制约居民消费的慢性障碍。在影响居民消费需求的众多因素中，收入，尤其是收入差距巨大，是不容忽视的关键因素；它们不仅制约着居民的整体消费水平，而且直接关系到居民消费结构的合理化 [9,10,11]。事实上，中国作为典型的两极经济结构的发展中国家，长期存在城乡经济发展不平衡、不同地区居民收入差距大等问题，导致区域和区域经济差异显着。收入促进对增长消费的刺激作用的时间存在明显的差异 [12,13,14,15,16]。但是，随着“一带一路”倡议下产业结构和区域经济协调发展，农村居民和欠发达地区的收入制约和消费模式正在发生根本性变化。因此，农村和欠发达地区的居民对交通、教育、医疗等日益普及的服务消费的需求可能比发达和城市地区的居民更多、更快[17,18]。尽管凯恩斯绝对收入假说认为不同收入群体的边际消费倾向存在差异，城乡不平等程度与居民消费差距呈正相关[1,19]，标准生命周期-永久收入假说则持相反观点，即消费者的边际倾向与收入分配无关，即边际消费下降的规律是不确定的，甚至可能产生负面影响 [4,20,21]。因此，对于居民而言，收入不平等加剧或缩小其消费差距的观点在理论上仍存在争议，不同收入群体的消费倾向是否存在显着差异还需要进一步实证研究。

随着中国经济步入“新常态”阶段，当务之急是转变经济发展方式，实现内生增长。实现上述目标的重要举措是提高居民消费水平，优化消费结构，其关键前提是正确理清居民收入与消费的内在关系。但是，由于我国产业结构的制约、城乡设施建设投资的分离、人口老龄化加剧和养老金制度观念的转变，居民收入和消费的协同演化过程呈现出明显的非线性时间特征[14,22,23] 具有显着的地区差异[5,12,16,24]。针对上述问题，以我国东、中、西部地区城乡居民收入和消费为研究对象，引入函数数据分析（FDA）的非参数和非线性方法研究——从静态和动态互动的角度分析居民收入和消费的变化模式和演变过程。本研究旨在探讨中国居民收入不平等和消费差距的区域差异、演变特征及原因。研究结果可为我国政府制定和实施提升消费水平、优化消费结构、拉动内需的政策提供实证参考。

二、居民收入与消费的关系

消费与收入差距的变化是衡量城乡协同发展和居民共同繁荣的核心指标。由于我国经济具有典型的两极结构，居民收入和消费中存在明显的时间特征和区域差异，不仅与不同地区的自然条件和初步发展基础有关，而且与中华人民共和国成立以来实施的不同地区和产业政策有关。由于经济发展的区域差异和经济体系的动态变化是研究收入与消费关系的两个重要视角，本文的目的从上述两个方面总结了中国居民收入与消费关系的研究现状。

2.1.中国居民收入和消费状况

中国经济发展的两个突出特点是：东、中、西部经济区的极度不平衡和三大经济区产业结构的巨大差异。通过比较sustainability

Article

Spatial and Temporal Differences in the Relationships between Residentsrsquo; Income and Consumption in China: A Dynamic Analysis Using Functional Data Analysis

Deqing Wang 1, Yan Xu 2, Lingyun He 1,* and Rongyan Liu 1

1. School of Management, China University of Mining and Technology, Daxue Road 1, Xuzhou 221116, China; dekinywang@cumt.edu.cn (D.W.); ts17070011a3tm@cumt.edu.cn (R.L.)
2. Corporate Business Department, Bank of Jiangsu Xuzhou Branch, Pengcheng Road 81, Xuzhou 221003,

China; xuyangrace@hotmail.com

* Correspondence: Lingyun_he@cumt.edu.cn; Tel.: 86-138-5248-3411

Received: 1 November 2018; Accepted: 5 December 2018; Published: 10 December 2018

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updates

Abstract: Income inequality and consumption gaps between urban and rural residents are prominent problems in the economic transition phase of China. Stimulating consumption, expanding domestic demand, and shifting development modes are inevitable choices for maintaining Chinarsquo;s economy with healthy, stable, and endogenous growth, and the key premise is to clarify the coordination relationship between residentsrsquo; income and consumption. In view of that, this study incorporates the spatial factors of three economic zones and time factors of Chinarsquo;s economic transition into an analytical framework. By transforming discrete data into continuous functions, we compared the regional differences and temporal characteristics of the relationship between residentsrsquo; income and consumption based on the two perspectives of static absolute level and dynamic growing speed. The result shows that: (1) There are significant differences in the absolute levels of original income and consumption among residents in the eastern, middle, and western regions of China, whereas the growing velocity and acceleration of income and consumption do not have significant regional differences. (2) There is a highly positive canonical correlation both in the absolute growth amount and dynamic growth potential of residentsrsquo; income and consumption, whereas their nonlinear co-variation has obvious temporal characteristics, and the degree of canonical correlation has significant regional differences. Based on these conclusions, Chinarsquo;s government need not consider regional factors too much when formulating and implementing policies to narrow residentsrsquo; income gap and stimulating consumption in order to expand domestic demand, but should discriminate the specific coevolving period of income and consumption and take into account the difference in average consumption rate of different social strata.

Keywords: income inequality; consumption gaps; functional data analysis; spatial and temporal difference

Introduction

The balance between consumption and income is central for the government to formulate macroeconomic policies. Since Keynes [1] put forward the absolute income hypothesis, the short-term fluctuation and long-term equilibrium relationship between income and consumption have been a permanent hot issue in economics [2,3]. China is currently in the critical period of economic transition, especially affected by the current Sino-U.S. trade war, and a traditional extensive development model that relies heavily on investment and export that cannot ensure the sustained, stable, and rapid growth of Chinarsquo;s economy. Therefore, expanding domestic demand, especially stimulating consumer demand, is an important measure for the government to address this crisis and stabilize the economy.

Sustainability 2018, 10, 4703; doi:10.3390/su10124703 www.mdpi.com/journal/sustainability

It must be noted that both the size of the population and the growth potential of income imply that Chinarsquo;s consumption level has large room for upward improvement [4,5]. However, the actual situation shows that China is still facing multiple plights, such as the declining rate of total consumption, too large a gap between regional and urban-rural residentsrsquo; consumption, and the proportion of increasing government consumption expenditure while residentsrsquo; consumption expenditures decreases [5–8]. During the “13th Five-Year Plan,” the critical period for China to moderate a prosperous society in all respects, stimulating domestic demand, especially the consumption demand of residents, is the inevitable choice to realize the endogenous growth of Chinarsquo;s economy, and the key premise is to find out and eliminate the chronic obstacles that restrict residentsrsquo; consumption. Among numerous factors affecting the consumption demand of residents, income, especially its huge gaps, are key factors that cannot be ignored; they not only restrict the whole consumption level of residents but also directly relate to the rationalization of the consumption structure of residents [9–11]. In fact, as a developing country with a typical two-pole economic structure, China has long-standing problems, such as unbalanced economic development between urban and rural areas and large income gaps among residents in different regions, which has led to significant regional and temporal differences in the stimulating effect of income promotion on the consumption of growth [12–16]. Howeve

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