“后三公经费时代”茅台公司财务分析外文翻译资料

附录B 外文原文

文献来源：NIE Zhiping,Financial Analysis of Maotai Company After the Police of “Three Public Consumptions” Was Introduced,Management Science and Engineering,2014,8

Financial Analysis of Maotai Company After the Police of “Three Public Consumptions” Was Introduced

NIE Zhiping

Abstract

In the analysis of financial performance of Maotai Company, we find that its performance was influenced by the police of “three public consumptions” not as much as other liquor companies were. Its revenue and profit grew less than ever. Its advance receivables were almost exhausted. Its inventory turnover days became longer than before. Its net cash flow turned to be negative in recent years. However, Maotai Company still has surprising rate of return on net assets. Its monetary funds are abundant and rank 1st in the liquor industry. Its extremely high gross margin maintains as before. Therefore, Maotai Company has the possibility to bring its investors a high return in the long run.

Key words: Financial Analysis; Rate of return on net assets; Abundant cash flow; Advance receivables; Inventory turnover days

INTRODUCTION

Maotai wine belongs to Maotai-flavor liquor. It is a fine product in the world of liquor and it occupies the leading high-end liquor. Maotai winersquo;s uniqueness is mainly reflected in the 5 years of the aging process. Its unique geographical environment and microbial environment make its products scarce and hard to be copied. Many people think Maotai wine is an important object of public consumption. Policies such as “three public consumptions”, “eight rules of discipline” and “prohibition of liquor” introduced lead the liquor industry into deep adjustment (Zhou, 2014, p.70). However, according to financial data, we can not deny that the liquor industry has been lucrative for many years. This adjustment is perhaps a return to rational result. Although Maotai Company is in a controversy of public consumption, it still earns excellent performance which surprises investors very much.

1.HIGH RATE OF RETURN ON NET ASSETS

Maotai Company always has a high and admirable rate of return on net assets. Its average rate of return on net assets is 33.36% in recent 8 years. The stability and profitability are very amazing. After the listing, Maotai Companyrsquo;s net assets per share were 9.96 yuan in 2001. After 13 years of growth, the net assets per share value reached 241 yuan per share, rising 24.2 (241/9.96) times. Has the strong growth been reflected into its stock price? In December 31, 2001, the stock price of Maotai was 39.3 yuan per share. After the stock dividend, a share in December 31, 2011 is equivalent to 4.3 shares in the year of 2014. In October 21, 2014, the stock closed at 158 yuan per share, the share price rose 17.29 (equivalent to 158 times; 4.3 divide;39.3) times. It also confirms the investment community rule: The performance of a companyrsquo;s growth will eventually be reflected in the stock price.

Table 1 Diluted Rate of Return on Net Assets of Maotai Company (unit: %)

2.HIGH GROSS PROFIT

Because Maotai is the first high priced shares in the stock market, its super high gross profit naturally catches the attention of the public. Since 2008, Maotai Companyrsquo;s average gross margin has always been above 90%. In fact, there are several other companies which have higher gross margin than Maotai. However, Maotai companyrsquo;s years of the high speed growth and the market size make its super high gross profit a popular phenomenon

Table 2 Years of Gross Margin of Maotai, Wuliangye and Yanghe (unit: %)

Compared with Wuliangye and Yanghe in the industry, Maotai has much stronger profitability (Chen, 2014, p.55). The reason for Maotairsquo;s gross profit growth year after year is related to its price increase in recent years (Wang, 2014, p.18). In January 1, 2010, the average rate of price increase went to 13%. In January 1, 2011, the average rate of price increase went to 20%. In September 1, 2012, the average price ranges up to 20%-30%. In the liquor industry, Maotai is often the first to rise prices. After its rising, other liquor manufacturers will follow. For Maotai, high gross margin causes high profit margin. Generally, its net profit margin is above 50%. Therefore, its

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附录A 译文

文献来源：NIE Zhiping,Financial Analysis of Maotai Company After the Police of “Three Public Consumptions” Was Introduced,Management Science and Engineering,2014,8

“后三公经费时代”茅台公司财务分析

NIE Zhiping

摘要

在对茅台公司财务绩效的分析中，我们发现茅台公司的绩效受“三公消费”政策的影响不像其他酒类公司那么大。它的收入和利润增长比以往任何时候都要少。它的预付应收款项几乎耗尽了。它的库存周转期比以前长了。近年来，该公司的净现金流变为负值。不过，茅台公司的净资产收益率仍然高得惊人。货币资金雄厚，在白酒行业名列第一。其极高的毛利率保持不变。因此，从长远来看，茅台公司有可能为投资者带来高回报。

关键词: 财务分析;净资产收益率;充足的现金流;促进应收账款;存货周转天数

介绍

茅台酒属于酱香型白酒。它是世界白酒的精品，在高端白酒中占有领先地位。茅台酒的独特之处主要体现在其5年的陈酿过程中。其独特的地理环境和微生物环境使其产品稀少，难以复制。许多人认为茅台酒是公众消费的重要对象。出台“三公消费”、“八项规定”、“禁酒”等政策，引导白酒行业深度调整。然而，根据财务数据，我们不能否认白酒行业已经盈利多年，这种调整可能是回归理性的结果。虽然茅台公司处于公众消费的争论之中，但它仍然取得了令投资者十分惊讶的优异业绩。

1.净资产收益率高

茅台公司的净资产收益率一直很高，令人钦佩。近8年的平均净资产收益率为33.36%。稳定性和盈利能力都非常惊人。上市后，茅台公司2001年的每股净资产为9.96元。经过13年的增长，每股净资产达到241元，增长了24.2倍。强劲的增长是否反映在其股价上：2001年12月31日，茅台股价为每股39.3元。在股票股利之后，2011年12月31日的a股相当于2014年的4.3股。2014年10月21日，该股收于每股158元，股价上涨17.29倍。这也印证了股票的一大原则:公司业绩的增长最终会反映在股价上。

表1茅台公司净资产摊薄收益率(单位:%)

2.高毛利率

由于茅台是中国第一家上市的高价股，其超高的毛利润自然引起了公众的关注。自2008年以来，茅台公司的平均毛利率一直在90%以上。事实上，还有几家公司的毛利率高于茅台。然而，茅台公司多年的高速增长和市场规模使其超高的毛利润成为一种普遍现象

表2茅台、五粮液、洋河3年毛利率(单位:%)

与同行业的五粮液和洋河相比，茅台的盈利能力更强。茅而台毛利润逐年增长的原因与近年来的价格上涨有关。2010年1月1日，平均涨幅达到13%。2011年1月1日，平均涨幅达到20%。2012年9月1日，平均价格在同行业中高出20%-30%。在白酒行业，茅台往往是第一个涨价的。在其上调售价后之后，其他酒类制造商也将效仿。对于茅台来说，毛利率高，利润率也高。一般来说，它的净利润率在50%以上。因此，其高毛利在最终业绩中起着关键作用。

3.充足的现金流

白酒行业的利润率一直很高。业绩好的公司往往能获得大量的现金流。他们的现金流通常占资产的很大一部分。茅台就是这类企业的典范。从表3可以看出，茅台的现金流一直非常充裕。在过去几年中，货币基金维持了近一半的总资产。近两年来，货币基金有所下降。但它仍占总资产的40%。如此高的现金流不是来自投资回报，也不是来自债务，而是来自经营活动的利润积累。

表3茅台货币基金(单位:千万元)

茅台的发展模式主要取决于自身的发展。扩大产能的投资主要来自其自身的现金流。年度股息也来自累积盈余。这些大量的资金都依赖于来自商业活动的现金流。茅台的内在稳定发展为长期投资者带来了巨大的回报。著名投资大师彼得·林奇曾经说过，如果货币基金以外的流动资产足够偿还债务，那么货币基金就会给你的投资成本打个折扣。在2014.6.30的案例中，茅台的流动资产主要是货币资金和存货。库存足够偿还债务。然后货币资本有点类似于自由现金流，使初始投资贴现。向下转换，货币基金每股18.48元(2.11亿元/ 1.142亿股)。那天的收盘价是142元。考虑到货币资金带来的每股现金，茅台的股价实际上是123.52元。

4.低债务酒

业绩好的公司往往现金流充裕，债务水平低于其他公司，并且它们的债务往往是短期债务。茅台的长期债务只有1777万元。从表4可以看出，茅台的资产负债率相当低，不超过30%。随着利润的积累，茅台积极还债。此外，减少债务并没有阻止茅台资金的继续增长。这是良好投资目标的特征:债务水平下降，货币资金数量增加。

表4资产负债率变动情况(单位:1000万元)

5.应收账款

茅台公司应收账款是一个最受人们质疑的报告项目。呈现先增后减的趋势。从表5可以看出，2011年之前茅台的预收账款一直在增长。自2012年初以来，该项目持续下降。这一趋势与“三公经费”有关。通常，预收账款相当于销售收入的“预收库”。当收入增长缓慢时，可将预收账款转为收入。应收预付款的作用由应收预付款的比例决定。如果提前应收是100%，每年将20亿元预收账款转化为收入对300亿元的年销售额影响不大。如果应收预付款平均比例为10%，每年将20亿元的应收预付款转化为收入可带来200亿元的收入，这对茅台酒将产生重大影响。截至2014年6月30日，茅台的预收账款已基本耗尽，仅剩下5,440万元。也就是说，在后期，收入不能再依靠预收账款作为收入的“蓄水池”。茅台的收入只能依靠自身的增长。

表5 应收账款变动情况(单位:1000万元)

6.存货和应收账款的周转天数

由于茅台供应紧张，信贷几乎没有发放。因此，应收账款的周转天数很短，不到一天。茅台库存主要由毛坯组成。茅台酒的一大特点是经过5年的窖藏，可以直接出厂。因此，存货周转期似乎很长。如果

扣除5年的库存周转天数，库存周转天数将大大缩短。然而，库存周转率的上升趋势需要引起关注。这可能意味着茅台在2013年和2014年遭遇了销售瓶颈。库存周转率低的原因还可能是生产增加和销售放缓。幸运的是，酒存放的时间越长，它的价值就越高。因此，白酒企业存货周转期较长对其他行业企业的影响要小得多。

表6 茅台存货及应收账款周转天数(单位:千万元)