附录A 外文原文

The Determinants of the Demand for Life Insurance in an Emerging Economy -The Case of China

Author(s): Tienyu Hwang (College of Business, Ireland)

Simon Gao (School of Accounting and Economics, Napier University Business School, Sighthill Court, Edinburgh EH11 4BN, Scotland)

Abstract

In the past two decades, many emerging economies have been witnessed the strong growth of their life insurance industry. While research in the demand for life insurance has attracted much attention since the 1960s, most studies have focused on cross-country studies or well-established markets in developed countries. As a result of cross-national variations in life insurance consumption, it has been argued in the literature that factors shaping the demand for life insurance are complex and varied from one country to an- other.

This paper aims to examine key determinants of the demand for life insurance in China with a view to explaining the rapid growth of the life insurance industry in China since its economic reform in 1978. Empirical investigation using a time series data analy- sis has shown that the main factors which have influenced people in China to purchase life insurance products are directly associated with the successful economic reform lead- ing people to progress to higher layers of economic security, the increase in the level of education and the change in social structure. However, this research has not found a nega- tive effect of inflation on life insurance consumption, even China experienced high infla- tion in the mid-1990s.

Introduction

In the past two decades, many emerging economies have been witnessed the strong growth of their life insurance industry. While research in the demand for life insurance has attracted much attention since the 1960s, most studies have focused on cross-country studies1 or well-established markets in developed countries2. As a result of cross-national variations in life insurance consumption, it has been argued in the literature that factors shaping the demand for life insurance are complex and varied from one country to an- other. Chinarsquo;s life insurance market has seen significant growth, although the level of in- come remains relatively low, compared to other developed countries. This offers an interesting incentive to examine several key factors affecting the demand for life insur- ance in China.

China has enjoyed a higher level of economic growth since its economic reforms in 1978. On average, the annual real GDP growth rate was around 10% over the past decade (International Monetary Fund, 2001). The increase in the level of income associated with this economic development has generally led to the growing demand for economic secu- rity for individuals and households. While continuing the pace of the economic reforms, China is currently experiencing changes in social and demographic structures with the declining significance of agricultural sectors, the falling size of the family, and the in- creasing migration of rural residents to cities. The transition in the socio-economic and demographic patterns indicates that tradition and convention are loosening, which is likely to have both a direct and an indirect impact on peoplersquo;s attitude towards risk and insurance. From 1990 to 1997 life premium income grew substantially from Renminbi (Rmb)3,102 million (US$594 million) to Rmb62,647 million (US$7,557 million). At the same time, life premium expenditure per capita rose from about US$0.5 to US$6.1. The contribution of the life insurance industry to the national economy increased from 0.18% in 1990 to 0.82% in 1997 (Swiss Reinsurance Company, 1992; Swiss Reinsurance Com- pany, 1999). Although the level of life insurance consumption remains relatively low in China, compared to the most important markets in the world,3 the life insurance market has in fact grown remarkably over the past decade.

Currently, even relatively few life insurers in this potential market4 and some re- strictions on doing business in certain geographic areas and products that can be sold by foreign insurers,5 competition for the market share has been very intense since China lib- eralised the sector in the late 1980s. Table 1 shows the premium income of major life in- surance companies in 1997. The Peoplersquo;s Insurance (Life) Company of China (PICC)6, the state-owned insurer, was the predominant insurer capturing around 53% of the market by 1997. The second large company was Ping An Insurance Company of China (PAIC) with a life insurance market share around 30%. American International Assurance (AIG)7 was the largest foreign insurer with approximately 2%.

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附录A 译文

对寿险需求的新兴经济体--中国案例的决定因素

作者：Tienyu Hwang、利默里克，大学商学院，爱尔兰，

Simon Gao，会计和经济学，龙比亚大学商学院，赛特希尔法院，苏格兰

摘要：在过去的二十年里，许多新兴经济体见证了寿险业的强劲增长。自20世纪60年代以来，对寿险需求的研究引起了广泛的关注，但大多数研究都集中在发达国家的跨国研究或完善的市场上。由于跨国寿险消费的变化，有人认为，在文献中，塑造寿险需求的因素是复杂的，从一个国家到另一个不同。

本文旨在探讨与解释在中国寿险业的快速增长期1978年的经济改革以来，中国寿险需求决定因素。实证研究采用时间序列数据分析系统显示的主要因素影响了人们在中国购买人寿保险产品直接与成功的经济改革使人民进步到更高层次的经济安全密切相关，教育水平的提高和社会结构的变化。但是，本研究并未发现即使中国在上世纪90年代中期经历高通胀问题，负通货膨胀对寿险消费性效果。

1引言

在过去的二十年里，许多新兴经济体见证了寿险业的强劲增长。而在寿险需求的研究自上世纪60年代以来，备受关注，大多数研究都集中在越野的研究或完善市场发达的国家。由于跨国寿险消费的变化，有人认为，在文献中，塑造寿险需求的因素是复杂的，从一个国家到另一个不同。中国的保险市场已经出现大幅增长，虽然水平在来仍相对较低，相比其他发达国家。本研究的几个关键影响因素为生命保险需求在中国提供了一个有趣的激励性。 中国由1978经济改革以来享有较高水平的经济增长。平均而言，过去十年的实际GDP增长率约为10%（国际货币基金组织，2001）。在收入与经济发展相关的水平的增加通常导致日益增长的需求，为个人和家庭的经济安全性。而持续的经济改革步伐，中国目前正在经历的社会和人口结构的变化，随着农业部门重要性的下降，家庭规模的下降，而在增加农村居民向城市迁移。社会经济转型和人口统计模式表明，传统和惯例正在放松，这可能直接和间接地影响人们对风险和保险的态度。从1990到1997的寿险保费收入大幅增长来自任敏碧（人民币）31亿200万（5亿9400万美元）来rmb62647万元（75亿5700万美元）。与此同时，人均保费支出从0.5美元上升至约6.1美元。人寿保险业对国民经济的贡献由0.18%的1990增加至0.82%的1997（瑞士再保公司，1992；瑞士再保险公司，1999）。虽然在中国人寿保险消费水平仍然较低，相比于世界上最重要的市场，3的人寿保险市场事实上已经在过去的十年里增长显著。

目前，即使是相对少数寿险公司在这个潜在的市场，再在一定的地理区域和产品，可以通过出售限制外国保险公司做生意，为5的市场份额的竞争已经中国库eralised年代中后期部门非常激烈。表1显示了保费收入为主要生活在1997保险公司。中国人民保险（生活）公司（PICC）6，中国的国有保险公司，主要是保险公司获取了53%左右的市场份额1997。第二大公司是中国平安保险公司（PAIC）与寿险市场份额的30%左右。美国国际保险公司（AIG）7是最大的外国保险公司，约为2%。

然而，寿险市场的发展有很大不同的地理区域内的中国，也只集中在一个有限数量的发展了沿海城市（如上海、深圳、广州、等）和北京的省会城市，如表2所示。北京1997的人均保费支出最高（约为70美元），其次是深圳、上海和美国，均高于40美元。其他地区保费支出较低。虽然人寿保险的消费在不同地区有很大的不同，但在表2所列的所有地区保费收入都有可观的增长。

因在中国的寿险市场的显著表现，本文专门探讨的关键因素，影响了中国人在购买人寿保险产品。在下面的部分，我们讨论了中国的经济和社会问题，是有可能影响寿险需求。在此之后，研究提供了假定和方法。实证结果，然后提交。最后一节总结了论文。